The figure to the left shows the ordering of
Earth’s geological periods, going back about four and half billion years. Homo erectus, our ancestors, showed up during
the Pleistocene epoch, which lasted about 2.6 million years, as evidenced by
the geological record. During the
Pleistocene the climate underwent a series of dramatic swings, producing
alternate periods of glaciation and warming periods that led to major retreats
of the glaciers. Homo sapiens—the first
humans, you might say—showed up about 200,000 years ago. The little boxes
denoting the different epochs in the figure are not to scale. If they were, the Pleistocene would be a very
narrow box, and the Holocene would be just a line. We humans are very recent
entrants onto the stage of Earth’s evolution.
The Holocene represents the major retreat of the last wave
of glaciation. The glaciers covered
Canada, dipped down into what is now the Midwest, covered New York and all of
New England. It was only 11,700 years
ago that the most recent major glaciers retreated. The climate since then has been relatively
stable, with no periods of dramatic change.
It is this stability that enabled humans to expand from the tropical regions
toward the poles, especially in the northern hemisphere. In their retreats, those massive glaciers gouged
out the Great Lakes, and their movements ground rocks to a fine powder that,
along with sand, covered land surfaces and formed the base for seeds to
germinate and form the vegetation that eventually covered much of the land.
During this time Earth’s climate was determined in large
measure by the amount of carbon dioxide, CO2, in the atmosphere. Climatologists and
geologists have developed powerful means to measure CO2 levels in
the past several million years, and have also been able to reliably estimate
atmospheric temperatures over this same period. The two are strongly
correlated. On the basis of this and
much corroborating evidence, we can be quite sure that an increase in atmospheric
CO2 level produces warming, which in turn results in melting of
glacial ice and an increase in sea level.
The table above should bring home the fact that we’re such
newcomers to the planet! Humans have no
real experience with major climate
change. The Holocene is regarded as a
period of quite stable climate as compared with earlier epochs, long before
humans made their debut. The geological
record and ocean sediments, provide evidence that there were periods in Earth’s
history that were truly overpowering, that changed nearly everything. The Russian scientist, Mikhail Budyko, was one of the
pioneers of studies on global climate.
He produced a simple physical model of equilibrium in which the incoming
solar radiation absorbed by the Earth's system is balanced by the energy
re-radiated to space as thermal energy. The results of his calculations were
startling. In 1972, he calculated that a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 would melt all the polar ice, whereas reducing the CO2 level by half could
lead to a complete glaciation of the Earth. Budyko was not the first to advance these
ideas. For example, the Swedish
scientist, Svante Arrhenius, had come to similar conclusions much earlier. But Budyko had a
quantitative model. He predicted that
if ice sheets advanced far enough out of the polar regions, a reinforcement could
occur whereby the increased reflectiveness of the ice led to more cooling and
the formation of more ice, until the entire Earth was covered in ice.
His prediction regarding loss of the polar
ice is being borne out; as the CO2 the arctic ice is diminishing year by year, and is
likely to be completely melted in the summer months in 20 to 30 years. But what
about that other prediction? Was there ever a time when the CO2
level was so low that the planet was covered with ice? It’s hard to imagine,
but evidence that Earth was once completely glaciated, the so-called Snowball Earth hypothesis, has been
accumulating. The American climatologist
Joseph Kirschvink published
a paper
in 1992 in which he argued that the presence of banded
iron formations in certain geological deposits
is consistent with such a global glacial episode. It happened very long ago,
650 million years back, in the Proterozoic Eon (see the figure). But once such
a frozen landscape is formed, what could break the planet out of such a frozen
state? Several mechanisms might have
been at work. One candidate is that CO2
began to accumulate from volcanic outgassing. There could have been
plenty of that going on during those long-ago times.
I recently ran across a paper in Science, entitled: “Rapid sea level rise in the
aftermath of a Neoproterozoic snowball Earth”. It was my introduction to the idea of “Snowball
Earth”. Naturally, I had to read it. If
Earth’s surface were covered with ice, what was the sea level under all that
ice? The gist of the paper is that, with so much water being tied up as ice,
the level of the liquid ocean underneath it had to be much lower than it is
today. Scientists can only guess, but they
estimate that the water level would have been from about 0.7 to 1 mile lower
than today. So when conditions suddenly
changed, and the glaciers began melting at a furious rate, sea levels rose,
scientists estimate, about 100 times faster than at present—on the order of a
foot a year.
We humans seem to have been
programmed by evolution to think short term.
That characteristic is coming to haunt us in dealing with global climate
change today. We have trouble focusing
on events likely to ensue in the future, even if they’re only a century away. We should be thinking about the possibility
that glacial melting could come more rapidly than scientists now estimate. There’s
a lot we could be doing to head off some of
projected global warming, but we seem content to put it off. It may be tempting to buy a pricey home or
condo near the water, but future rates of sea level rise could make that an
even poorer investment than it now seems to be.
No comments:
Post a Comment